Hi — This weekend I had to have a very direct conversation with my husband. He likes to take us off of every mailing list and tosses catalogs before they can make it inside the house. I reminded him that especially with all the holiday catalogs, if I catch him tossing any before I see them I will add 10 more to our address. Hands off my catalogs!
The holidays are cropping up everywhere. It is officially Beauty Advent Calendar season. Websites are adding gift guides to their Homepages, and the countdown has begun.
In this send: Set Active founder Lindsey Carter takes to Instagram and Substack to share why they won’t be launching any new product for Black Friday this year and the possible $10 million impact to the brand. I break it all down with a merchant’s insights. Plus: velvet ballet flats, the new twinset (an ornate coat and a matching mini dress), taffeta easy pants, BFCM, SKU counts, Arket, and have you started holiday shopping yet?
The Rundown
Fresh Receipts — velvet ballet flats, a House Coat, and silly little things to store your jewelry in
Forecasting — taffeta pants at a price, and DIY whether you do it or a designer does it
Set Active Re-Sets Holiday — What to do when your Black Friday inventory won’t arrive in time
In My Feed — dupe brands and a conversation at a café discussing the Spring/Summer 2027 runway shows
Fresh Receipts
Alex Mill launched a velvet ballet flat for $20 more than the leather version. Velvet retails for $248. The velvet comes in three colors, and the orchid and gold (really more of a chartreuse shade) are selling out in key sizes but the brown still has stock. It is interesting to me when the pop colors go first because it shows me that in certain styles shoppers really want something statement and fun. Or it could just be that the buyers aren’t going deep enough with the inventory.
The Colleen Allen House Coat restocked, and then promptly sold out (almost) again. Another proof point of shoppers wanting/needing/loving a special statement piece even at higher price points. Or I should say, especially at higher price points. This is also why ornate items are doing well, and Conner Ives is in the conversation. Did you catch Emily Sundberg’s piece in Feed Me yesterday? I loved this reporting.
The new ornate twinset?: Staud coat plus a matching mini dress. Tuckernuck has a version too — car coat with a sheath. Or a Rixo maxi coat and matching trousers. Just make sure to execute more is more.
The latest Dries Van Noten handbag to swoon over, and this one too. Don’t wait too long to consider purchasing because I’m sure you are bummed you missed out on this one. Or a Dries Van Noten cummerbund is another key ornate accessory.
I added this Arma leather skirt to the Forecast: bitchy little skirts.
Merit’s New Wave fragrance arrives this week.
Banana Republic x Zankov collab has launched and my favorite items are the cozy, interesting striped sweaters. Interesting that BR went with two fall stripe-y collabs. Like BR executed with La Ligne, the Zankov collab was added to the navigation for the launch. (P.S. It’s worth looking at BR x La Ligne almost six weeks after launch. Too much inventory is left. Should have sold out faster. Not too fast, but they shouldn’t still own it now. My assumption is it didn’t sell to expectations, even though the hype and the marketing were well done.)
Added to the Nav. How BR’s collab playbook is executed. A new Donni collection is launching today and their deliveries have been very consistent. This is Fall Part V.
Another creative jewelry storage piece is launching for those of us who are organization-obsessed. Marla Aaron’s Some of the Things Box. I love the inspiration from a vintage sewing box. Reminder: the other original jewelry storage piece is this new Ariel Gordon Jewelry Trapper Keeper-like travel case.
For their new drop, Coach’s Coachtopia went to where Gen Z-Alpha shop: Depop. Hundreds of vintage and sold out bags from the Coachtopia line.
FYI: Shopbop’s Gift Guide is up.
New holiday sets from Kiehl’s: a travel set, a gift with a refill, and there are great sets for boys and men looking for grooming products.
Forecasting
All retailers and brands received the message that at the $118 - $250 price point, taffeta pants sell. And taffeta like…
Hill House Home launched theirs, and only left in size small as of Monday evening. Retail — $228.
Reformation used deadstock fabric in a rayon and polyester blend (curious if the backlash of polyester fabrics will be coming for Reformation). Retail — $198 and $218 for the pair with the ornate banded hem at the ankle.
The pair that might really really take off due to 1) super opening price point in the category 2) the range of sizes. XXS—XL in standard, plus 1x - 3x, petite and tall. 3) 8 color options. Anthropologie’s Maeve pants are made of 100 percent polyester, and again I’m curious if the customers will shrug at this or be up in arms. I’m voting for being thrilled at the price point and range of sizes. Retail — $118.
The Chan Luu Techno Taffeta Ultra Wide Leg Trousers aren’t new, but I was at a conference recently and the woman wearing these received a ton of compliments. And she looked fantastic and had fun wearing them, and isn’t that the point of fashion? Having fun? Retail — $218.
Another option at opening price point, the Lisa Says Gah pair has a peplum at the top which is a trend I kept Forecasting over the summer. Interesting to see it still sticking around for winter, and this pair is in polyester. Retail — $148.
From the Conner Ives DIY/ Emily Sundberg article mentioned above, I think we are seeing a solid trend of DIY that is artfully and elegantly executed. I usually call this trend “loving hands at home,” which often refers to the visibly DIY element of it (as in the emphasis on messy) but I think the quality is so wonderful now and really being embraced. It is more about being artful, one-of-a-kind, special and personal than “crafty”. A few pieces I’ve noticed of late:
Everything from Paula Votteler on Instagram, but especially her fishing lure handbag.
This creator has been working on the Fendi Needlepoint Baguette. Almost finished.
If you don’t DIY but still love the look, and one-of-a-kindness of designs, brands still have you covered. Alex Mill partnered with Carleen on special cashmere jackets that are made from deadstock Alex Mill trims and vintage wool blankets. They remind me of these Lily Eve jackets made with Hermès towels and blankets.
And the Ralph Lauren presentation in Paris with pieces from Piki Wadsworth is fantastic and I love every detail.
Set Active Re-Sets Holiday
First, let’s get a vocab term out of the way that I’m sure I’ll be using a lot the next few months. I like abbreviations.
BFCM = Black Friday Cyber Monday. Refers to the selling period from the day after Thanksgiving through the Monday after. Cyber Monday, when everyone is back at their desk working, tends to be a huge day for online selling. But as we’ve seen in recent years BFCM starts much earlier than the Friday after Thanksgiving and lasts almost up until Christmas. Of course there are different names for all these promotions so more reporting on that to come.
Monday Set Active’s Founder and CEO Lindsey Carter took to Instagram to share that this year’s BFCM new product drops won’t arrive in time and she won’t sell them on backorder. It was a customer service decision. She put the cost at more than $10 million in projected revenue lost. From now on, Set will only launch product once it is physically at the warehouse, counted and QC’ed1.
I read this post immediately, scrolled through the comments from the loyal fan base, and started breaking it all down.
